Governor of Oregon Faces Mounting Pressure as Washington Refineries Begin to Close

Alarm is growing in Oregon’s political and business communities as refinery closures and climate mandates in neighboring Washington state threaten the fuel supply of an economy almost entirely dependent on out-of-state gasoline. Energy analysts warn that Oregon, which has no oil refineries of its own, may be heading toward a long-term fuel crisis driven not by market forces, but by government policy beyond its borders.

Washington’s climate law, which mandates net-zero emissions by 2050, has placed all five of the state’s oil refineries on a legal countdown. Together, those refineries supply roughly 90 percent of Oregon’s gasoline and diesel. Under the law, refiners must either dramatically change their operations—often by converting to biofuels—or shut down entirely.

The consequences are no longer theoretical. In December 2024, Phillips 66 closed its Los Angeles-area refinery, eliminating a major source of West Coast fuel supply. The same company owns the Ferndale refinery in Washington, one of the key facilities supplying Oregon. Industry observers see the California closure as part of a broader pattern: over the past 18 months, California alone has lost roughly 20 percent of its refining capacity as climate regulations tightened.

A government-commissioned study in Washington underscores the concern. It concludes that “all five refineries are likely to change their product mix or function” by 2050. In industry terms, critics say, that is often a polite way of acknowledging large-scale shutdowns. Converting traditional refineries to biofuel facilities typically results in a 70–80 percent reduction in fuel output, while eliminating thousands of high-paying industrial jobs.

For Oregon, the implications are severe. With no refineries, no major pipelines crossing the Rocky Mountains, and limited rail capacity, the state functions as what energy experts call a “fuel island.” Once regional refineries close or downsize, Oregon has few realistic alternatives. Importing fuel from Asia would become the default option, but at a steep cost.

Analysts estimate that full reliance on overseas imports could drive gasoline prices from today’s roughly $3.70 per gallon to $8–$10 per gallon. That increase would hit working families hardest, adding an estimated $2,000 to $3,000 per year in fuel costs for households already living paycheck to paycheck. Meanwhile, national averages currently sit well below Oregon’s prices, intensifying concerns about competitiveness and affordability.

Critics argue that policymakers driving aggressive climate agendas are insulated from the consequences. Urban elites with electric vehicles and high incomes, they say, are shielded from fuel price shocks, while rural residents, tradespeople, and commuters bear the brunt. “This becomes a permanent poverty tax,” said one regional energy consultant. “Once refineries are gone, they don’t come back.”

Despite the looming threat, Oregon officials have yet to present a comprehensive backup plan. There are no announced refinery projects, no viable pipeline proposals, and no large-scale alternatives capable of replacing lost capacity. As Washington’s net-zero mandate accelerates refinery closures, Oregon’s dependency deepens.

What worries critics most is that the timeline is already in motion. This is not a sudden crisis, they argue, but a government-mandated unraveling with a 25-year fuse steadily burning. Unless regional energy realities are addressed, Oregon may soon find itself locked into permanent import dependence—paying the price for policies it did not create, but cannot escape.